IRAN LEADERS SAY US VOTE VALIDATES RESISTANCE STRATEGY

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said on November 4 that Iran's strikes on US bases and Strait of Hormuz actions exposed American weakness and proved the success of Iran's resistance strategy, according to the Iran Update. ISW-CTP assesses that Iranian leaders do not expect the US midterm results to change Washington's approach, meaning Iran will likely maintain its maximalist demands.

AT A GLANCE

• NEW | UKRAINE | Russian drone strikes on November 3 to 4 caused widespread power outages across central and western Ukraine, per the November 4 assessment.

• NEW | IRAN | Iranian leaders said US midterm results prove their resistance strategy worked, while ISW assesses US policy toward Iran is unlikely to shift.

• NEW | TAIWAN | The PLAN may soon commission the Sichuan, the only amphibious assault ship with an electromagnetic drone catapult, per ISW-CDOT.

• NEW | KOREA | North Korea's October 29 combined missile, rocket, and drone exercise suggests Pyongyang is integrating lessons from the Ukraine war, ISW-CDOT assesses.

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WHY IRAN'S LEADERS SEE THE US MIDTERMS AS A WIN

Senior Iranian officials, including Khamenei, SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei, and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, publicly framed the November 3 US midterm results as a political defeat for Washington tied to the war's costs, according to the Iran Update.

ISW-CTP assesses that these statements suggest Iran will not moderate its demands, because Iranian leaders believe changes in US political leadership will not alter Washington's underlying approach toward Iran regardless of election outcomes.

Separately, the source reports Iran is using unmanned underwater vehicles, limpet mines, and rocket-propelled grenades, described as suboptimal compared to earlier anti-ship missiles and drones, to disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping.

ISW-CTP assesses US military overmatch is currently preventing Iran from significantly reducing civilian tanker transit, while noting Iran may invest further in unmanned systems over the long term.

OTHER SIGNALS

UKRAINE | RUSSIAN STRIKES CAUSE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES

ISW report of November 4 · new

Russian forces launched 310 drones overnight on November 3 to 4, striking energy infrastructure in Kyiv City and Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Volyn, Ternopil, and Zhytomyr oblasts, according to Ukrainian officials cited in the November 4 assessment. Zelensky reported emergency outages across eight oblasts plus Kyiv City, and Ukraine's energy ministry reported over 20 strikes on energy systems in 24 hours.

A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed Russian forces shifted to more systematic strikes on system-critical substations to strategically weaken Ukraine, a claim ISW did not independently verify. Ukrainian forces continued long-range strikes into Russia, including a reported drone strike that caused a fire at an Ozon warehouse in Adygeysk, confirmed by the Republic of Adygea's head.

TAIWAN | PLAN PREPARES TO COMMISSION DRONE-CATAPULT SHIP

ISW report of November 3 · new

PRC state media reported the Type 076 vessel Sichuan conducted its first catapult launch and recovery of a GJ-21 stealth drone on October 30, according to the November 3 China and Taiwan Update. ISW-CDOT assesses Sichuan could be commissioned soon, potentially faster than the carrier Fujian given its single catapult.

Separately, Taiwan's Ministry of Defense is requiring teardown inspections of all military drone procurements after prosecutors found PRC-made chips in Align Corp drones used in two government contracts. Taiwan's National Security Bureau is also investigating suspected PRC cyberattacks against a DPP mayoral candidate's campaign infrastructure.

KOREA | NORTH KOREA TESTS COMBINED MISSILE-DRONE STRIKES

ISW report of November 4 · new

North Korea conducted a large-scale missile and drone exercise on October 29 alongside a drone exhibition showcasing fixed-wing UAVs, loitering munitions, and quadcopters, according to the November 4 Korean Peninsula Update. State media showed a fixed-wing drone firing what may have been an anti-radiation missile at a mock radar, followed by smaller drones and rocket and cruise missile launches.

ISW-CDOT assesses this layered strike sequence could be designed to degrade South Korean air defenses before follow-on strikes, reflecting lessons from Russia's campaign in Ukraine. Separately, US and South Korean defense ministers agreed to pursue a timely OPCON transfer, though the annual Security Consultative Meeting was postponed to early 2027 amid capability gaps.

30-DAY CALLS: 7 of 8 resolved calls held since September 2026 (1 missed). Today's call is below.

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RUSSIA INTENSIFIES STRIKE CAMPAIGN, STRIKES KILL CIVILIANS IN

ISW reported on November 2 that Russia launched 6,473 long-range Shahed/Geran drones against Ukraine in October, with Ukrainian forces downing 75 percent. Russian forces also struck Komyshuvakha on November 2, reportedly killing at least 18 civilians in a double tap glide bomb strike, Zelensky said.

AT A GLANCE

• NEW | UKRAINE | ISW reports Russia launched 6,473 long-range drones in October and struck a Komyshuvakha humanitarian site, reportedly killing 18 civilians.

• NEW | IRAN | ISW reports Houthi forces advanced in Lahij Governorate, threatening Yemeni government reinforcement routes and Aden City.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 30 | TAIWAN | ISW-CDOT reported PLAN task forces conducting large-scale West Pacific transits simulating Taiwan isolation tactics.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 28 | KOREA | ISW reported North Korea deepening PRC ties while maintaining frontline military buildup along the Military Demarcation Line.

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WHY RUSSIA'S STRIKE CAMPAIGN SIGNALS A SHIFTING THEORY OF VICTORY

ISW assesses that Russia's increasingly devastating long-range strikes reflect Putin's evolving theory of victory, which now hinges on making Ukrainian civilian life untenable rather than relying solely on grinding battlefield gains that have stalled.

ISW reports Russian forces made negative territorial gains over the last two months while suffering nearly 100,000 losses in October and September 2026 combined, pressuring Putin to lean more heavily on strikes.

ISW notes Russia increased quasi-cruise missile use and jet-powered drone strikes to maximize civilian harm, conserving ballistic and cruise missiles for high-priority targets while exploiting Ukraine's Patriot interceptor shortages.

The Komyshuvakha strike, which Zelensky said included a double tap on a sheltering civilian population, illustrates this strategy. Poland's new Border Defense Component responds to related sabotage warnings, per Ukrainian officials.

OTHER SIGNALS

IRAN | HOUTHI ADVANCES PRESSURE YEMENI GOVERNMENT ON MULTIPLE FRONTS

ISW report of November 2 · new

ISW reports Houthi forces captured positions in al Maqatirah District on November 2, including Jabal Irf, which overlooks the last government-controlled sections of the Taiz-Aden ground line of communication. The advance threatens government reinforcement and resupply routes toward Aden City.

ISW assesses the Yemeni government has already diverted Red Sea coast-based units to al Maqatirah, illustrating the dilemma the Houthi campaign is designed to impose. Separately, ISW reports senior Iranian officials met Russian and Chinese counterparts on November 2 amid reports of possible US attacks on Iran.

TAIWAN | PLA PURGES CONTINUE AS PLAN PRACTICES ISOLATION TACTICS

ISW report of October 30 · carried forward

ISW's carried-forward report states the CCP's Fifth Plenum confirmed the expulsion of 33 senior officials, including 16 military officers, reducing the near-term likelihood of major PLA operations according to ISW's assessment of Xi's distrust in military leadership.

The same report describes PLAN task forces transiting the Miyako and Osumi Straits between October 13 and 27, which ISW-CDOT assesses as practice for isolating Taiwan and preventing outside intervention during a potential conflict, coordinated with land-based aircraft support.

30-DAY CALLS: 6 of 7 resolved calls held since September 2026 (1 missed). Today's call is below.

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PLAN DRILLS SIMULATE ISOLATING TAIWAN AS CCP PURGES PLA

ISW's October 30 China and Taiwan Update reports the PLAN conducted coordinated deployments through multiple first island chain chokepoints since October 13, including the Liaoning carrier group and several surface task forces. ISW assesses these movements likely practice isolating Taiwan and blocking outside intervention, while separately assessing that the CCP's Fifth Plenum purge of 16 military officers reduces the near-term likelihood of major PLA operations.

AT A GLANCE

• NEW | UKRAINE | ISW reports a largely successful Kherson humanitarian evacuation ceasefire while the Kremlin maintains maximalist demands rejecting Ukrainian ceasefire offers.

• NEW | IRAN | ISW reports Khamenei's son directed commanders to expand Iran's targeting bank and raise readiness to deter US or Israeli strikes.

• NEW | TAIWAN | ISW reports PLAN task forces conducted coordinated chokepoint transits as CCP purges reduced near-term likelihood of major PLA operations.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 28 | KOREA | North Korea continues frontline artillery build-up near the MDL while South Korea proposes bilateral talks to demarcate the border.

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WHY THE PLAN'S CHOKEPOINT DRILLS MATTER NOW

ISW's October 30 update documents PLAN task forces transiting the Miyako and Osumi Straits multiple times since October 13, coordinated with land-based reconnaissance aircraft near the same chokepoints. ISW assesses this pattern likely rehearses isolating Taiwan from outside intervention during a future conflict.

The exercises occurred during the US-Japan Keen Sword drills between October 19 and 29, which ISW says may have let the PLAN practice detecting opposing forces around contested chokepoint areas. ISW notes the drills could also offset PLAN naval aviation shortcomings by pairing surface ships with land-based aircraft.

Separately, ISW assesses the CCP's Fifth Plenum purge of 33 officials, including 16 military officers and two Central Military Commission members, reflects Xi Jinping's continued distrust of the PLA. ISW judges this reduces the likelihood of a Taiwan invasion in the near term given depleted senior leadership.

These two ISW findings run in parallel rather than together: tactical PLAN rehearsal of isolation tactics alongside a political purge that ISW assesses constrains Beijing's near-term appetite for major operations. Both elements bear on how Taiwan's November 28 elections are read in Beijing and Taipei.

OTHER SIGNALS

UKRAINE | KHERSON CEASEFIRE HOLDS AMID DISPUTED VIOLATIONS

ISW report of October 31 · new

ISW's October 31 update reports Russia and Ukraine completed a humanitarian evacuation from occupied Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, under a localized ceasefire in place since October 27. Ukrainian officials said some residents reached Ukrainian-controlled Chernihiv Oblast after transiting Belarus, while others stayed or went to occupied Crimea.

Ukrainian spokesperson Maksym Kravchuk alleged Russian forces repeatedly violated the ceasefire using reconnaissance and explosive drones, while Russian official Rodion Miroshnik countered that Ukrainian forces struck a civilian vehicle near Oleshky. ISW states it cannot independently verify either claimed violation, and separately reports the Kremlin still rejects broader ceasefire proposals.

IRAN | KHAMENEI'S SON ORDERS WIDER TARGETING BANK

ISW report of October 31 · new

ISW's October 31 Iran Update reports Mojtaba Khamenei directed Iran's top three military commanders to prepare retaliation against possible US strikes by expanding Iran's targeting bank to include all tangible and intangible US and Israeli assets. ISW assesses this likely aims to deter renewed strikes through maximum deterrence messaging.

ISW also reports Iran is raising readiness in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and border regions, and that Qatari mediators held over 12 hours of talks with Iranian officials on October 30 and 31. Iranian officials told Qatari and Tasnim media they see no direct talks until the United States meets Iran's conditions.

KOREA | PYONGYANG DEEPENS FRONTLINE BUILD-UP

ISW report of October 28 · carried forward

ISW's carried-forward October 28 Korean Peninsula Update reports North Korea is exploiting the September 21 landmine incident to accelerate fortification and artillery deployments along the Military Demarcation Line. South Korean media reported KPA 122mm self-propelled howitzers positioned roughly 40 kilometers from Seoul across the Han River Estuary.

The same update reports South Korea's Deputy Minister Kim Hong-cheol proposed bilateral military talks on October 23 to demarcate the MDL and prevent accidental clashes, while North Korea's Kim Yo Jong affirmed plans for permanent border fortification and resumed loudspeaker broadcasts. No ISW update since October 28 records a North Korean response to the talks proposal.

30-DAY CALLS: 6 of 7 resolved calls held since September 2026 (1 missed). Today's call is below.

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RUSSIAN SATELLITES REPORTEDLY AID HOUTHI STRIKES ON SAUDI ARABIA

A Switzerland-based geospatial intelligence firm told the Associated Press on October 28 that Russian military satellites have repeatedly positioned over Saudi energy and military sites before and after Houthi strikes. A Saudi official and a senior Houthi official separately told the AP that Russia is providing satellite targeting intelligence, reportedly via Iranian advisers in Yemen.

AT A GLANCE

• NEW | UKRAINE | Russian and Ukrainian rights commissioners confirmed no violations in the first 30 hours of the Oleshky ceasefire as unidentified USVs struck a cargo ship off Bulgaria.

• NEW | IRAN | A geospatial firm and officials told the AP Russian satellites tracked Saudi sites around Houthi strikes, which continued against Aden airport on October 28.

• NEW | TAIWAN | The PLAN carrier Liaoning transited the Basilan Strait near Philippine waters while the PRC pushed a space arms control narrative at the UN.

• NEW | KOREA | North Korea deepened ties with China via Kim Jong Un's Dandong visit while deploying artillery near the Han River Estuary close to Seoul.

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WHY RUSSIAN SATELLITE SUPPORT TO THE HOUTHIS MATTERS

The geospatial intelligence firm reported 40 instances of Russian satellites positioning over Saudi military and energy sites between July 1 and October 19, including before the September 10 strike on the Saudi East-West Pipeline. ISW notes this pattern also appeared around strikes launched from Iraq.

A Saudi official and a senior Houthi official separately told the AP that Russia supplies satellite-based targeting intelligence to the Houthis, reportedly channeled through Iranian military advisers operating in Yemen. ISW assesses this imagery very likely enables battle damage assessments of Houthi strikes.

ISW assesses that Russian support is enabling the Iranian-backed Houthi campaign to constrain Saudi oil exports during a global energy crisis that Iran has caused by attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. ISW frames this as consistent with Russia's prior 2023-2024 targeting support to the Houthis.

Separately, the Houthis struck Aden International Airport on October 28 with at least two ballistic missiles after warning evacuation on social media. ISW assesses this is likely an effort to degrade the Yemeni government's ability to sustain military operations and deter partner weapons shipments.

OTHER SIGNALS

UKRAINE | OLESHKY CEASEFIRE HOLDS AS BLACK SEA STRIKE REPORTED

ISW report of October 28 · new

Ukraine's Human Rights Commissioner and his Russian counterpart confirmed on October 28 no ceasefire violations in the first 30 hours since the Oleshky agreement took effect October 27. Accounts differ on scope: Melania Trump said it covers unspecified other Kherson areas, BBC sources said it covers all of Kherson Oblast, and Fox News reported evacuees will travel via Anapa and Gomel, Belarus, with no confirmed onward route to Ukraine.

Separately, Bulgaria's defense minister said three unidentified, possibly Russian, unmanned surface vehicles struck the cargo ship Constship Jet about 21 nautical miles southeast of Shalba on October 28. ISW notes this follows recent Russian strikes on vessels near Romanian and Bulgarian waters in October. ISW also reports Russia is providing satellite targeting intelligence to Houthi forces.

TAIWAN | LIAONING TRANSITS BASILAN STRAIT NEAR PHILIPPINES

ISW report of October 27 · new

The PLAN carrier Liaoning and its escorts, including two Type 055 cruisers, transited the Basilan Strait and came within 50 nautical miles of the Philippine coast, the Philippine military confirmed October 26. ISW assesses this unusual transit likely aims to intimidate Manila and may simulate isolating the Philippines or Taiwan during a future conflict.

Separately, PRC officials pushed a space arms control narrative at the UN on October 21 and 23 while developing counterspace and dual-use satellite capabilities, according to ISW. ISW assesses the PRC portrays itself as a responsible space power while preparing offensive options against systems like Starlink in a Taiwan contingency.

KOREA | KIM VISITS CHINA AS NORTH DEPLOYS ARTILLERY NEAR SEOUL

ISW report of October 28 · new

Kim Jong Un made a single-day visit to Dandong, China, on October 24, meeting Wang Huning and touring a Korean War memorial, part of what ISW describes as North Korea restoring ties with Beijing. ISW assesses the newly opened New Yalu River Bridge will likely serve as a hub for North Korean sanctions evasion.

Separately, South Korean media reported the Korean People's Army deployed two 122mm self-propelled howitzers near the Han River Estuary, about 40 km from Seoul. ISW assesses North Korea is exploiting the September 21 landmine incident to accelerate frontline fortification while Seoul continues proposing bilateral military talks.

30-DAY CALLS: 6 of 6 resolved calls held since September 2026. Today's call is below.

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PUTIN REPEATS MAXIMALIST DEMANDS AS OLESHKY CEASEFIRE HOLDS

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Moscow's maximalist demands on Ukraine and NATO during an October 27 call with Finnish and Norwegian leaders, according to the October 27 ISW report. ISW assesses the call signals Russia's continued insistence on resolving so-called root causes before any peace talks, while a limited Oleshky ceasefire for humanitarian aid and evacuations reportedly held without violations.

AT A GLANCE

• NEW | UKRAINE | Putin restated maximalist demands to Finnish and Norwegian leaders as a limited Oleshky ceasefire reportedly held without violations.

• NEW | IRAN | Iran reportedly pressed Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey to help broker a US-Iran deal while Iraqi militias surveilled the US Embassy.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 23 | TAIWAN | PRC election interference operations and an unusual four-ship Type 071 training formation remain the last reported baseline.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 21 | KOREA | North Korea's SLCM tests from the Hero Kim Kun Ok submarine and new PRC bridge trade links remain the last reported baseline.

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WHY PUTIN'S ROOT CAUSES DEMAND AND THE OLESHKY CEASEFIRE MATTER

ISW reports Putin used his first direct contact with Finnish and Norwegian leaders since taking office to restate Russia's long-standing demand that NATO expansion be treated as a root cause of the war requiring resolution before negotiations.

Putin reportedly told the two leaders that any peace deal must recognize ground realities, language ISW and a source close to the Kremlin interpret as Russia's refusal to compromise on seizing all of Donbas and possibly more Ukrainian territory.

Separately, ISW reports a limited ceasefire began in Russian-occupied Oleshky on October 27 to allow humanitarian aid and civilian evacuations, with Ukrainian and Russian officials both stating no violations have been recorded as of the report.

ISW notes it remains unclear whether Russian authorities will allow evacuated Oleshky residents a duress-free choice to return to Ukrainian-controlled territory, leaving the disposition of these civilians unresolved pending any future agreement.

OTHER SIGNALS

IRAN | TEHRAN COURTS REGIONAL MEDIATORS AS MILITIAS WATCH BAGHDAD

ISW report of October 27 · new

ISW's October 27 Iran Update reports Iran likely used a meeting with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey to pressure the trio into helping broker a US-Iran deal favorable to Tehran, while trying to portray the United States as the source of regional instability.

Separately, Iranian-backed Iraqi militias almost certainly flew two drones to surveil the US Embassy in Baghdad on October 27, which ISW assesses was likely intended to deter US strikes on Iran. The Houthis also reportedly threatened Egypt over its defensive assistance to Saudi Arabia, including implied threats against Suez Canal shipping.

TAIWAN | PRC ELECTION INTERFERENCE AND AMPHIBIOUS DRILLS PERSIST

ISW report of October 23 · carried forward

The carried-forward October 23 ISW China and Taiwan Update reports Taiwanese officials observed expanded PRC cyberattacks and AI-generated influence content ahead of November local elections, including a reported 48 percent rise in suspect social media posts.

ISW also reports the PLAN conducted an unusual combat training formation using four Type 071 landing ships, assessed as likely intended to intimidate the Philippines. Observable indicators include further Type 071 deployments or additional cyberattack volume data ahead of the November 28 vote.

30-DAY CALLS: 6 of 6 resolved calls held since September 2026. Today's call is below.

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HOUTHIS FIRE AT LEAST 12 MISSILES, TWO DRONES AT SAUDI ARABIA

The Houthis have fired at least 12 missiles and two drones targeting Saudi Arabia since October 24, according to the October 25 ISW Iran Update. ISW assesses the campaign aims to impose economic and political costs on Saudi Arabia and compel concessions on port and resource control.

AT A GLANCE

• NEW | UKRAINE | Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced near Oleksandrivka, prompting Russian redeployment of naval infantry and tank division elements, per ISW.

• NEW | IRAN | ISW reports Houthis fired at least 12 missiles and two drones at Saudi Arabia since October 24, most intercepted.

• NEW | TAIWAN | ISW reports Taiwan's NSB flagged rising PRC cyberattacks and AI-driven influence operations ahead of November local elections.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 21 | KOREA | ISW's October 21 update on North Korean submarine-launched cruise missile tests remains the most recent Korea baseline.

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WHY THE HOUTHI STRIKE CAMPAIGN AGAINST SAUDI ARABIA MATTERS

ISW reports the Houthis fired at least 12 missiles and two drones at Saudi Arabia since October 24. Saudi forces intercepted 11 missiles over southern Saudi Arabia, including Asir Province, on October 25.

Separately, Saudi forces intercepted two drones and a missile over Riyadh Province on October 24, before ISW-CTP's data cutoff. The Houthis had not claimed these attacks as of the report.

ISW assesses the campaign aims to impose economic and political costs on Saudi Arabia and compel Riyadh to accept Houthi demands. These demands reportedly include lifting controls on Houthi-held ports and airports and granting control over Yemeni oil and gas resources.

ISW also reports Yemeni government-aligned forces continue engaging Houthi forces south of Taiz City to break the encirclement. ISW assesses these forces will gain little unless they also secure the Taiz-Aden ground line of communication.

OTHER SIGNALS

UKRAINE | GAINS NEAR OLEKSANDRIVKA, STRIKES ON RUSSIAN PLANTS

ISW report of October 25 · new

Ukrainian military observer Mashovets reported Ukrainian forces liberated Perebudova, Komar, and Fedorivka and advanced near Vesele, per the October 25 ISW assessment. Mashovets reported the advances forced Russia to redeploy naval infantry and tank division elements from other directions.

ISW also reports Ukrainian long-range strikes hit the Energiya Plant in Yelets, which produces Iskander missile components, and the VSMPO-AVISMA titanium plant in Berezniki. Russian officials in both regions acknowledged the strikes without confirming targets struck.

TAIWAN | NSB REPORTS SURGING PRC ELECTION INTERFERENCE

ISW report of October 23 · new

Taiwan's National Security Bureau reported PRC-origin cyberattacks against its Government Services Network rose to 185.6 million in July, averaging 2.58 million daily, per the October 23 ISW update. The NSB also uncovered 2.5 million suspect social media posts from January to August, a 48 percent rise over 2025.

ISW also reports the PLAN conducted an unusual four-ship Type 071 landing platform dock training formation, assessed as likely intended to intimidate the Philippines. ISW notes this was the first such four-ship Type 071 formation reported since August 2025.

KOREA | SUBMARINE MISSILE TEST BASELINE UNCHANGED

ISW report of October 21 · carried forward

No newer Korea report has been issued since the October 21 ISW update, which remains the current baseline. That update reported North Korea tested two submarine-launched cruise missiles from the Hero Kim Kun Ok submarine, which ISW assessed as likely nuclear-capable.

ISW assessed North Korea may extend SLCM capability to unmodified Romeo-class submarines, which could obscure which vessels carry nuclear weapons. Analysts should watch for South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff statements on countermeasures to this capability.

30-DAY CALLS: 6 of 6 resolved calls held since September 2026. Today's call is below.

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UKRAINE COUNTEROFFENSIVE DERAILS RUSSIAN DONETSK PINCER PLAN

Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps Commander Andrii Biletskyi reported on October 19 that Operation Vivaldi defeated Russia's northern pincer in the Lyman direction, pushing Ukrainian forces to the Zherebets River. ISW assesses this forced Russian forces into a costlier frontal assault east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk against prepared Ukrainian defenses.

AT A GLANCE

• NEW | UKRAINE | ISW reports Operation Vivaldi defeated Russia's northern pincer near Lyman, forcing a costlier frontal assault approach.

• NEW | IRAN | ISW reports Iran may be using more precise, IR-guided weapons to strike engine rooms of commercial ships in Hormuz.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 16 | TAIWAN | US and Japan deploy anti-ship missiles to Yonaguni Island during Keen Sword exercises, per the October 16 ISW update.

• CARRIED FORWARD, SEP 30 | KOREA | South Korea has not detailed corresponding measures after the DMZ mine incident, per the September 30 ISW update.

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WHY OPERATION VIVALDI MATTERS FOR THE DONETSK FRONT

Biletskyi reported that Operation Vivaldi degraded the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division to the point it ceased functioning as an organized force. Russia must reconstitute this division before resuming offensive operations toward Lyman, according to the October 20 ISW update.

ISW assesses that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 122 square kilometers between September 1 and October 16, 2026, against roughly 100 square kilometers seized since January 1, 2026. This reflects a broader stall in Russian territorial gains across the frontline this year.

Ukrainian forces continue to face in-motion speed restrictions on Starshield that Beskrestnov says limit counter-drone intercepts against piston engine and jet-powered Geran drones. Zelensky stated on October 19 that these restrictions also undermine frontline logistics and intermediate-range strikes.

Separately, the October 20 ISW update reports that Lavrov and Medvedev reaffirmed Kremlin support for Iran and described the United States as a long-term adversary, despite a US diesel export waiver offered to Russia. ISW assesses this reflects no sincere Kremlin interest in normalizing US relations.

OTHER SIGNALS

IRAN | PRECISION STRIKES TARGET SHIP ENGINE ROOMS IN HORMUZ

ISW report of October 21 · new

The October 21 ISW Iran Update reports that at least five of 23 recorded attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz during the first two weeks of October struck commercial ships' engine rooms, a pattern absent in September. ISW assesses Iran is likely using more precise systems, consistent with its October 5 assessment of improving targeting capability.

ISW assesses Iran is likely employing anti-ship cruise missiles or infrared-guided drones capable of terminal guidance without human control, given strait jamming conditions. Iranian officials reportedly told the Washington Post the regime is focused on driving up oil prices to pressure President Trump before the November 3 midterm elections, as oil exports approach prewar levels.

30-DAY CALLS: 5 of 5 resolved calls held since September 2026. Today's call is below.

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IRAN NAMES MISSILE VETERAN AS DEFENSE MINISTER

Iran appointed Mehrdad Akhlaghi, a longtime missile program official, as its new defense minister, according to the October 19 ISW Iran Update. ISW assesses this appointment indicates the regime is prioritizing reconstitution of its missile program, with Akhlaghi stating Iran will rebuild its defense industrial base in less vulnerable areas.

AT A GLANCE

• NEW | UKRAINE | Ukrainian forces struck Leningrad Oblast infrastructure in their largest attack on the region since 2022, per ISW.

• NEW | IRAN | Houthis reportedly adopted new tactics to overwhelm Saudi air defenses while Iran named a missile-focused defense minister.

• NEW | TAIWAN | Taiwan enforced anti-PRC supply chain rules as the US and Japan deployed anti-ship missiles near Yonaguni Island.

• CARRIED FORWARD, SEP 30 | KOREA | No new ISW Korea report; South Korea had not detailed corresponding measures after the DMZ mine incident.

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WHY IRAN'S MISSILE MINISTER PICK MATTERS

Iran's appointment of Mehrdad Akhlaghi as defense minister follows a career centered on ballistic missile development, including leadership of the Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group and the Aerospace Industries Organization, per ISW's October 19 Iran Update.

ISW assesses the appointment signals Iran is prioritizing reconstitution of its missile program after recent setbacks. Akhlaghi stated the regime intends to rebuild its defense industrial base in locations less vulnerable to airstrikes, according to the update.

Separately, ISW reports the Houthis are adopting new tactics to bypass Saudi air defenses, including simultaneous munition launches and strikes on undefended areas, citing a senior US official speaking to the Wall Street Journal on October 18.

ISW assesses this reflects shared tactical learning across the Axis of Resistance rather than direct Iranian instruction, noting the Houthis have fought Saudi Arabia for over a decade and likely developed these methods independently, with IRGC and Hezbollah advisers present in Yemen.

OTHER SIGNALS

UKRAINE | LARGEST STRIKE ON LENINGRAD OBLAST SINCE 2022

ISW report of October 18 · new

Ukrainian forces conducted their largest strike against Russian digital, energy, and logistics infrastructure in St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast since 2022, overnight October 17 to 18, according to the October 18 ISW report. Targets included a VK data center, a substation, an Ozon warehouse, and a bridge.

ISW assesses the wide target set highlights Russia's persistent air defense vulnerabilities and command and control problems. Separately, ISW notes Ukraine's access to Starshield for intercepting jet-powered drones remains restricted, with US officials saying expanded access is still under discussion, and Russia is reorganizing brigades into divisions.

TAIWAN | US, JAPAN DEPLOY MISSILES NEAR TAIWAN

ISW report of October 16 · new

The US Marine Corps and Japan's Self-Defense Force will deploy anti-ship missiles to Yonaguni Island, about 110 kilometers from Taiwan, during the Keen Sword exercise from October 19 to 29, according to the October 16 ISW update. This marks the first such US deployment to the island.

ISW assesses the deployment demonstrates the USMC's stand-in forces concept and could constrain PLA naval freedom of maneuver through regional chokepoints. Separately, Taiwan prosecuted two cases involving PRC-origin components and software in defense and government procurement, part of its ongoing red-free supply chain effort.

30-DAY CALLS: 4 of 4 resolved calls held since September 2026. Today's call is below.

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TRUMP WAIVES RUSSIA SANCTIONS; ISW SEES PROLONGED UKRAINE WAR

US President Trump signed an Executive Order on October 16 waiving sanctions against Russia under the Graham Act, according to ISW, and Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev called the move historic. ISW assessed that the waiver does not support Trump's stated goal of ending the war and will instead let Russia keep financing the conflict.

AT A GLANCE

• NEW | UKRAINE | Ukraine's General Staff disputed Gerasimov's claim of 1,800 sq km seized since September; ISW assessed a 122 sq km Russian net loss.

• NEW | IRAN | Yemeni government-aligned forces reportedly repelled Houthi attempts to seize Jabal Han and positions near Taiz City, per ISW.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 9 | TAIWAN | No new ISW report since October 9 on PRC interference with Philippine resupply and evacuation missions at Second Thomas Shoal.

• CARRIED FORWARD, SEP 30 | KOREA | No new ISW report since September 30 on South Korea's corresponding measures following the DMZ mine incident.

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WHY TRUMP'S SANCTIONS WAIVER MATTERS FOR UKRAINE'S WAR

Trump signed an Executive Order on October 16 waiving sanctions, restrictions, and tariff provisions against Russia under the Graham Act, per ISW. Dmitriev, a key Kremlin negotiator, called the suspension a significant and truly historic moment for Russia.

Russian and Ukrainian accounts conflict sharply over the frontline. Gerasimov claimed Russia seized over 1,800 square kilometers and 92 settlements since September 1, while Ukraine's General Staff spokesperson called this false and said Ukraine liberated more territory than Russia seized.

ISW assessed that evidence supports Kovalev's account, finding a Russian net loss of 122 square kilometers since September 1. ISW separately judged that Trump's sanctions waiver does not support his stated goal of ending the war and will instead help Russia continue financing it.

The combination of a sanctions waiver and contested frontline narratives suggests Moscow faces fewer financial constraints while contesting Ukraine's territorial accounting. Poland's warning of likely Russian sabotage against logistics infrastructure this winter adds a related pressure point on Western aid flows.

OTHER SIGNALS

IRAN | YEMENI FORCES REPEL HOUTHI PUSH NEAR TAIZ CITY

ISW report of October 17 · new

Yemeni government-aligned forces appear to have repelled Houthi efforts to secure positions on advantageous terrain and roadways on the western outskirts of Taiz City, according to Yemeni media and an independent Yemen-based journalist. Houthi forces have attempted to capture Jabal Han since completing their encirclement of Taiz City on October 12, but Yemeni forces have continued to repel these attacks since October 16.

The Houthis separately struck Aden International Airport on October 16 with two ballistic missiles, targeting weapons depots at Camp Badr, per Yemen's Transportation Ministry and Houthi media. ISW assessed that Iran likely continues to face constraints detecting and targeting vessels near the Strait of Hormuz despite a recent uptick in attacks, citing degraded Iranian coastal radar capability.

30-DAY CALLS: 3 of 3 resolved calls held since September 2026. Today's call is below.

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HOUTHIS HIT ADEN AND MARIB, SAM DAMAGES SAUDI JET

The Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Aden and Marib on October 15, striking the Yemeni Presidential Palace and residential areas. ISW assesses the Aden strikes likely aimed to undermine the Yemeni government's legitimacy amid setbacks in Taiz.

AT A GLANCE

• NEW | UKRAINE | ISW reports SpaceX imposed Starshield speed restrictions that disrupted Ukrainian jet-drone interception and intermediate-range strikes.

• NEW | IRAN | ISW reports Houthi missile and drone attacks on Aden and Marib and a SAM strike on a Saudi jet.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 9 | TAIWAN | No new ISW report; PRC interference with Philippine resupply and evacuation missions at Second Thomas Shoal remains the baseline.

• CARRIED FORWARD, SEP 30 | KOREA | No new ISW report; the DMZ mine incident and South Korea's undefined corresponding measures remain the baseline.

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WHY THE HOUTHI STRIKES ON ADEN AND MARIB MATTER

ISW reports that Houthi forces fired large barrages of missiles and drones at Aden on October 15, striking the Yemeni Presidential Palace and residential areas. ISW assesses this likely sought an informational effect to undermine the fractured Yemeni government.

The Houthis also struck Marib City with at least 16 ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones, according to a Marib-based journalist and a Yemen analyst cited by ISW. ISW assesses this may have aimed to disrupt government forces preparing counteroffensives in Marib Governorate.

ISW separately reports a Houthi surface-to-air missile struck a Saudi-operated Eurofighter Typhoon over Saada Governorate on October 14, though footage suggests the aircraft was not destroyed. ISW assesses this shows limited but real Houthi capability against Saudi airpower.

These developments occur as Houthi forces continue fighting for Jabal Han and al Dhabab on Taiz City's outskirts, according to ISW, with control of Jabal Han reported as contested by multiple sources, indicating no settled outcome yet.

OTHER SIGNALS

UKRAINE | STARSHIELD SPEED LIMITS HIT DRONE OPERATIONS

ISW report of October 14 · new

ISW's October 14 assessment reports that SpaceX imposed a 100 mph speed restriction on Starshield terminals in Ukraine overnight on October 13 to 14, per Ukrainian officials Serhiy Beskrestnov and Sergii Sternenko. Musk said the US military and President Trump control Starshield limits, while Fedorov said SpaceX restored connectivity up to 160 kilometers per hour.

ISW assesses the restrictions significantly degraded Ukraine's jet-powered drone interception and intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, citing Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces data showing decreased strike intensity on October 14. The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps reported connection disruptions in Hulyaipole before deleting its statement without explanation.

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NO NEW UKRAINE REPORT AS MIAMI TALKS FALLOUT PERSISTS

No newer ISW report is available beyond the October 10 assessment. That report states US President Trump's diesel export deal announcement disrupted the Miami negotiations between Ukraine's delegation and US officials, ending talks early. ISW assesses Putin used his October 9 call with Trump to falsely blame Ukraine for the stalled peace process.

AT A GLANCE

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 10 | UKRAINE | Miami peace talks ended early after a US-Russia diesel deal reportedly disrupted the meeting, per the October 10 ISW report.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 9 | IRAN | Yemeni government-aligned forces reportedly recaptured Perim Island and al Aradi as Houthis kept shelling Saudi infrastructure.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 9 | TAIWAN | PCG said a China Coast Guard vessel delayed a medical evacuation at Second Thomas Shoal; a CCG spokesperson disputed this and claimed it aided the operation.

• CARRIED FORWARD, SEP 30 | KOREA | No new ISW Korea update exists since September 30 on South Korea's corresponding measures following the DMZ mine incident.

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WHY THE MIAMI TALKS COLLAPSE MATTERS FOR THE PEACE TRACK

The October 10 ISW report states that the US-Russia diesel export deal announcement blindsided the Ukrainian delegation during Miami negotiations, according to Financial Times sources cited by ISW. The talks, which were meant to cover winter preparations, territorial proposals, and security guarantees, ended without a planned second day.

Separately, ISW reports that Putin used his October 9 call with Trump to blame Ukraine for stalled negotiations, citing unfounded claims about Ukrainian strikes on Russian election infrastructure. ISW assesses there is no evidence supporting this claim and that Russia has made no concessions in peace talks.

ISW also assesses that the Russian Ministry of Defense is using the Max platform to present exaggerated battlefield claims specifically to a domestic audience, separate from its Telegram messaging. ISW states Russian claims of encircling Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv Oblast have been refuted by Ukrainian forces and Russian milbloggers themselves.

These three threads, the Miami disruption, Putin's blame-shifting call, and the domestic propaganda effort, are reported together in the same ISW assessment but describe distinct developments. ISW does not link them causally, and this brief preserves that separation rather than inferring a single narrative.

OTHER SIGNALS

IRAN | YEMENI FORCES REPORTEDLY RETAKE BAB AL MANDEB GROUND

ISW report of October 9 · carried forward

ISW's October 9 Iran Update reports that Yemeni government-aligned forces, including the Southern Giants Brigade, reportedly recaptured Perim Island and al Aradi from Houthi forces, citing anti-Houthi Yemeni sources and geolocated footage. ISW assesses this reduces Houthi access to territory nearest the Bab al Mandeb Strait and international shipping lanes.

ISW also reports that Houthi forces continued ballistic missile attacks on Saudi critical infrastructure, including a strike on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on October 8 that killed three civilians. ISW assesses the Houthi campaign aims to pressure Saudi Arabia into concessions, while Saudi Arabia struck Houthi missile infrastructure in response.

TAIWAN | PRC AND PHILIPPINES DISPUTE SHOAL EVACUATION INCIDENT

ISW report of October 9 · carried forward

ISW's October 9 China and Taiwan Update reports that the Philippine Coast Guard said a China Coast Guard vessel interfered with and delayed a medical evacuation at Second Thomas Shoal on October 8. A CCG spokesperson disputed this account, claiming the CCG aided the operation and accusing the Philippines of distorting events.

ISW assesses that this incident, combined with a September 24 resupply interference, likely indicates the PRC no longer intends to honor its 2024 provisional agreement with the Philippines. ISW further assesses the PRC aims to make the Philippine position on the shoal increasingly untenable over time.

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PUTIN BLAMES UKRAINE FOR STALLED TALKS AS DIESEL DEAL DISRUPTS MIAMI

Russian President Vladimir Putin told US President Trump on October 9 that Ukraine's alleged strikes on election infrastructure thwarted peace talks, ISW reports. ISW assesses there is no evidence Ukraine targeted that infrastructure and that Russia has made no concessions, calling Russia the intransigent party instead.

AT A GLANCE

• NEW | UKRAINE | Putin blamed Ukraine for stalled talks, but ISW found no evidence for Russia's election infrastructure claim.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 9 | IRAN | Yemeni government forces reportedly recaptured Perim Island and al Aradi from Houthi forces near the Bab al Mandeb.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 9 | TAIWAN | US and Taiwanese authorities indicted individuals for illegally reselling export-controlled chips to the PRC.

• CARRIED FORWARD, SEP 30 | KOREA | North Korea's DMZ mine-laying and fortification activity continue to raise risk of localized clashes, ISW assessed.

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WHY PUTIN'S BLAME-SHIFTING AND THE DIESEL DEAL MATTER

Putin's October 9 call with Trump reiterated Russia's maximalist war aims while shifting blame for stalled negotiations onto Ukraine. ISW found no evidence supporting Russia's claim that Ukraine struck election infrastructure during September's Duma elections.

ISW assesses Russia has rejected numerous ceasefire and peace proposals offered by Ukraine, the United States, and Europe without making concessions. This pattern indicates the Kremlin remains unwilling to accept terms short of Ukrainian capitulation.

The US announcement of a diesel export deal with Russia on October 9 disrupted the Miami negotiations between Ukraine's delegation and US officials, according to Financial Times sourcing cited by ISW. Three people familiar with the matter said the announcement blindsided Ukraine's team.

Ukraine's negotiating team departed Miami early without a planned second day of talks, per Ukrainian presidential adviser Dmytro Lytvyn. The combination of Putin's blame-shifting and the disrupted talks points to continued diplomatic stalemate rather than imminent progress.

OTHER SIGNALS

IRAN | YEMENI FORCES RECLAIM GROUND NEAR BAB AL MANDEB

ISW report of October 9 · carried forward

ISW's October 9 Iran Update reports Yemeni government-aligned forces reportedly captured Perim Island and recaptured al Aradi from Houthi forces, reducing Houthi access to territory nearest the Bab al Mandeb Strait and international shipping lanes. Houthi forces still hold broader Red Sea coastal territory.

Houthi forces continue stalling attempts in Taiz Governorate while also striking Saudi infrastructure, including a ballistic missile attack on King Khalid International Airport that killed three civilians. ISW assesses the Houthi campaign aims to pressure Saudi Arabia into accepting Houthi demands and ending operations against them.

TAIWAN | CHIP SMUGGLING CASES AND SHOAL INTERFERENCE PERSIST

ISW report of October 9 · carried forward

ISW's October 9 China and Taiwan Update reports US and Taiwanese authorities indicted 11 people in two cases for illegally reselling US-manufactured semiconductor chips to the PRC, which ISW assesses seeks the chips for PLA modernization and AI development.

The PRC also interfered with a Philippine medical evacuation at Second Thomas Shoal on October 8, which ISW assesses indicates Beijing likely no longer intends to honor its 2024 provisional agreement on resupply missions, raising pressure on the Philippine position there.

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YEMENI FORCES RETAKE BAB AL MANDEB GROUND AS HOUTHIS HIT SAUDI SITES

Yemeni government-aligned forces reportedly captured Perim Island and recaptured areas near the Bab al Mandeb Strait from Houthi forces on October 9. ISW assesses this reduces Houthi access to territory nearest the strait and shipping lanes, though Houthi forces retain other coastal positions for strikes.

AT A GLANCE

• NEW | UKRAINE | ISW reports the US waived sanctions on Russian diesel exports, a move ISW assesses will fund Russia's war effort.

• NEW | IRAN | Yemeni government forces reportedly recaptured Perim Island and Bab al Mandeb area territory from Houthi forces on October 9.

• NEW | TAIWAN | US and Taiwanese authorities indicted 11 people for illegally reselling export-controlled chips to the PRC.

• CARRIED FORWARD, SEP 30 | KOREA | No new ISW report since September 30; North Korean DMZ mine-laying and fortification risks remain unresolved.

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WHY THE BAB AL MANDEB RECAPTURE MATTERS

ISW reports that Yemeni government-aligned forces, including the Southern Giants Brigade and Homeland Shield Forces, secured al Aradi and reportedly seized Perim Island on October 9, citing anti-Houthi sources and geolocated footage.

ISW assesses this follows the government's October 8 capture of Jabal Kahbub, high ground overlooking both areas, which may have enabled the subsequent advances near the strait.

ISW notes government control over this territory denies the Houthis key positions near the Bab al Mandeb but does not eliminate the Houthi threat to shipping, since Houthi forces retain other Red Sea coastal positions including near the Hanish Islands and Mokha.

Separately, ISW reports the Houthis continued ballistic missile strikes on Saudi critical infrastructure, including an October 8 attack on King Khalid International Airport that killed three civilians, as part of a campaign ISW assesses aims to pressure Saudi Arabia into concessions.

OTHER SIGNALS

UKRAINE | US DIESEL WAIVER AND YANDEX DATA CENTER STRIKE

ISW report of October 9 · new

ISW's October 9 update reports that President Trump announced a waiver on Russian diesel sanctions, allowing Russia to supply over 300,000 tons of diesel to US and global markets immediately, with more in November. ISW assesses this will fund Russia's war effort and represents a unilateral US concession, since Russia has offered no reciprocal concessions.

ISW also reports a second Ukrainian long-range strike on a Yandex data center, this time in Kaluga City, following an October 8 strike on a Sasovo facility in Ryazan Oblast. Separately, Montenegro detained and then deported Rybar founder Mikhail Zvinchuk, prompting Russian officials to threaten retaliatory detentions of Western nationals.

TAIWAN | CHIP SMUGGLING INDICTMENTS AND SHOAL INTERFERENCE

ISW report of October 9 · new

ISW's October 9 update reports US and Taiwanese authorities separately indicted 11 people for illegally reselling US-manufactured semiconductor chips to the PRC, which ISW assesses seeks the chips for PLA modernization and AI development. Taiwanese prosecutors charged 10 individuals for reselling chips from 2017 through April 2026 using forged documents.

ISW also reports a China Coast Guard vessel interfered with a Philippine medical evacuation at Second Thomas Shoal on October 8, which ISW assesses likely indicates the PRC no longer intends to honor its 2024 resupply agreement with the Philippines. Germany separately blocked a COSCO logistics acquisition on security grounds.

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RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE INJURES MOLDOVAN CITIZEN AT BORDER

No newer ISW report is available since the October 5 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. That report stated a Russian drone struck near the Palanca Mayaky Udobne border crossing on October 5, injuring a Moldovan border patrol employee and damaging a bus. ISW assessed Russia likely intends such strikes to intimidate NATO.

AT A GLANCE

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 5 | UKRAINE | A Russian drone struck near the Palanca Mayaky Udobne crossing on October 5, injuring a Moldovan citizen, ISW reported.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 5 | IRAN | Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi air power launched an offensive toward Mokha, which ISW assessed will likely succeed.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 2 | TAIWAN | PRC research vessels conducted undersea surveys near the Batanes Islands despite Philippine Coast Guard expulsion efforts, ISW reported.

• CARRIED FORWARD, SEP 30 | KOREA | North Korea has not announced de-escalation after mine injuries, and South Korea has not detailed corresponding measures.

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WHY THE BORDER DRONE STRIKE MATTERS

The October 5 ISW report described the first confirmed Moldovan injury from a Russian drone, at the Palanca Mayaky Udobne crossing. Geolocated imagery indicated the drone ricocheted into Moldovan territory, though it remains unclear where it first struck.

ISW assessed that Russia has increasingly targeted Ukrainian border crossings with Moldova, Romania, and Poland in recent weeks. Moldovan airspace was violated at least ten times since August 2026 according to the report, including five drones that crashed on October 3.

ISW assessed Russia likely intends these strikes and incursions to intimidate NATO states into abandoning support for Ukraine. The report also noted Russia aims to normalize airspace violations by increasing their frequency over time.

Separately, the same report described new Russian Geran-4 drone modifications, including a US-made navigation sensor and a cutting warhead designed against bridges, reflecting broader adaptation of Russian strike capability discussed in the same assessment.

OTHER SIGNALS

IRAN | YEMENI OFFENSIVE PUSHES TOWARD MOKHA

ISW report of October 5 · carried forward

The October 5 Iran Update reported that Yemeni government forces, backed by Saudi air power and international coalition support, launched an offensive on October 4 to capture Mokha city and secure the Bab al Mandeb coastline. ISW assessed the offensive will likely succeed in capturing Mokha in the short term.

ISW noted government-aligned forces reached Dhubab Airport, 54 kilometers from Mokha, with unverified local footage showing fighters entering Mokha after reported Houthi withdrawals. ISW said it would watch for signs the Houthis reestablish a defensible line north of the city, noting no such indications yet.

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YEMENI FORCES PUSH TOWARD MOKHA AFTER REPORTED HOUTHI COLLAPSE

The Yemeni government, backed by Saudi air power and international coalition support, launched an offensive on October 4 to capture Mokha and secure the Bab al Mandeb Strait coastline. ISW assesses the offensive will likely succeed in capturing Mokha in the short term, citing reported Houthi withdrawals and an apparent collapse of Houthi lines.

AT A GLANCE

• NEW | UKRAINE | A Russian drone struck near a Ukraine-Moldova border crossing on October 5, injuring a Moldovan border patrol employee, ISW reports.

• NEW | IRAN | Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi air power launched an offensive toward Mokha, which ISW assesses will likely succeed.

• CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 2 | TAIWAN | PRC research vessels reportedly continued undersea cable survey operations near the Philippines' Batanes Islands despite Coast Guard efforts to expel them.

• CARRIED FORWARD, SEP 30 | KOREA | South Korea has not yet specified the corresponding measures Defense Minister Kang referenced after the September 21 mine incident.

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WHY THE MOKHA OFFENSIVE MATTERS FOR THE BAB AL MANDEB

ISW reports that Yemeni government-aligned forces, supported by over 100 Saudi aircraft and reported US intelligence assistance, advanced rapidly after Houthi lines retreated roughly 30 kilometers from the Mayyun Peninsula toward Dhubab. Local media posted unverified footage of government forces entering Mokha following reported Houthi withdrawals.

ISW assesses Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government likely launched this offensive with the limited objective of securing the Bab al Mandeb Strait, rather than the government's stated goal of recapturing all Houthi territory, which ISW judges would require years of separate campaigns.

ISW assesses that Yemeni government-aligned forces will likely halt offensive operations within seven to fourteen days to rest and consolidate, since the Houthis exploited an undefended coastal line to retake ground in early September using combined drone and ground attacks.

Separately, ISW reports Iran is likely improving missile accuracy, range, and speed to better target US regional assets and commercial shipping, which ISW assesses is intended to deter US strikes and preserve Iranian strategic initiative amid the wider regional conflict.

OTHER SIGNALS

UKRAINE | DRONE STRIKE INJURES MOLDOVAN CIVILIAN AT BORDER

ISW report of October 5 · new

The Moldovan Border Police reported that a Russian drone struck near the Palanca-Mayaky-Udobne crossing on October 5, damaging a bus and injuring a Moldovan border patrol employee, the first confirmed Moldovan injury from a Russian drone. Geolocated imagery indicated the drone ricocheted into Moldovan territory.

ISW reports Russia has fielded a modified Geran-4 drone with new navigation components and a specialized warhead designed to damage cable-stayed bridges, coinciding with intensified strikes on Kyiv's Dnipro River bridges. ISW assesses Russia likely intends border strikes and airspace violations to intimidate NATO states into reducing support for Ukraine.

TAIWAN | PRC SURVEY SHIPS REMAIN NEAR BATANES ISLANDS

ISW report of October 2 · carried forward

No newer ISW China and Taiwan report has been published since October 2. ISW reported that the PRC research vessel Jia Hai Ke 7 operated west of the Batanes Islands since September 22, with movement patterns the Philippine Coast Guard said indicated possible undersea cable surveying, coordinated with a China Coast Guard escort.

ISW assessed the PRC may seek to damage undersea cables around Taiwan during a future contingency to disrupt communications among Taiwan, the Philippines, and allied forces. Observable indicators include continued PRC survey ship presence, China Coast Guard escorts, and further Philippine Coast Guard expulsion attempts near the Batanes.

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RUSSIA STRIKES KYIV BRIDGE, FIVE DRONES CRASH IN MOLDOVA

Russian forces struck Kyiv's Northern Bridge on October 3, the sixth strike on the city's bridges since October 1, Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko…

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SEOUL SAYS NORTH KOREAN DMZ MINES INJURED SOLDIER, RISK RISES

South Korean Defense Minister Kang Shin-chul stated on September 29 that North Korea planted an anti-personnel mine that exploded and inju…

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SAUDI-YEMENI FORCES STRIKE HOUTHIS NEAR TAIZ AMID HORMUZ CLAIMS

No newer ISW report is available beyond the September 27 Iran Update. That source reports Saudi and Yemeni government-aligned forces str…

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MILBLOGGER: PUTIN BANKS ON WINTER STRIKE CAMPAIGN, NOT ADVANCES

A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger said Russia is embracing a strategy of expansive long-range missile and jet-powered drone stri…

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HOUTHIS BRIEFLY CUT KEY YEMEN SUPPLY ROUTE, FORCES RETAKE IT

Houthi forces reportedly severed the Taiz-Aden ground line of communication for under an hour on September 23 before Yemeni government-alig…

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