YEMENI FORCES PUSH TOWARD MOKHA AFTER REPORTED HOUTHI COLLAPSE
The Yemeni government, backed by Saudi air power and international coalition support, launched an offensive on October 4 to capture Mokha and secure the Bab al Mandeb Strait coastline. ISW assesses the offensive will likely succeed in capturing Mokha in the short term, citing reported Houthi withdrawals and an apparent collapse of Houthi lines.
AT A GLANCE
NEW | UKRAINE | A Russian drone struck near a Ukraine-Moldova border crossing on October 5, injuring a Moldovan border patrol employee, ISW reports.
NEW | IRAN | Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi air power launched an offensive toward Mokha, which ISW assesses will likely succeed.
CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 2 | TAIWAN | PRC research vessels reportedly continued undersea cable survey operations near the Philippines' Batanes Islands despite Coast Guard efforts to expel them.
CARRIED FORWARD, SEP 30 | KOREA | South Korea has not yet specified the corresponding measures Defense Minister Kang referenced after the September 21 mine incident.
WHY THE MOKHA OFFENSIVE MATTERS FOR THE BAB AL MANDEB
ISW reports that Yemeni government-aligned forces, supported by over 100 Saudi aircraft and reported US intelligence assistance, advanced rapidly after Houthi lines retreated roughly 30 kilometers from the Mayyun Peninsula toward Dhubab. Local media posted unverified footage of government forces entering Mokha following reported Houthi withdrawals.
ISW assesses Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government likely launched this offensive with the limited objective of securing the Bab al Mandeb Strait, rather than the government's stated goal of recapturing all Houthi territory, which ISW judges would require years of separate campaigns.
ISW assesses that Yemeni government-aligned forces will likely halt offensive operations within seven to fourteen days to rest and consolidate, since the Houthis exploited an undefended coastal line to retake ground in early September using combined drone and ground attacks.
Separately, ISW reports Iran is likely improving missile accuracy, range, and speed to better target US regional assets and commercial shipping, which ISW assesses is intended to deter US strikes and preserve Iranian strategic initiative amid the wider regional conflict.
OTHER SIGNALS
UKRAINE | DRONE STRIKE INJURES MOLDOVAN CIVILIAN AT BORDER
ISW report of October 5 · new
The Moldovan Border Police reported that a Russian drone struck near the Palanca-Mayaky-Udobne crossing on October 5, damaging a bus and injuring a Moldovan border patrol employee, the first confirmed Moldovan injury from a Russian drone. Geolocated imagery indicated the drone ricocheted into Moldovan territory.
ISW reports Russia has fielded a modified Geran-4 drone with new navigation components and a specialized warhead designed to damage cable-stayed bridges, coinciding with intensified strikes on Kyiv's Dnipro River bridges. ISW assesses Russia likely intends border strikes and airspace violations to intimidate NATO states into reducing support for Ukraine.
TAIWAN | PRC SURVEY SHIPS REMAIN NEAR BATANES ISLANDS
ISW report of October 2 · carried forward
No newer ISW China and Taiwan report has been published since October 2. ISW reported that the PRC research vessel Jia Hai Ke 7 operated west of the Batanes Islands since September 22, with movement patterns the Philippine Coast Guard said indicated possible undersea cable surveying, coordinated with a China Coast Guard escort.
ISW assessed the PRC may seek to damage undersea cables around Taiwan during a future contingency to disrupt communications among Taiwan, the Philippines, and allied forces. Observable indicators include continued PRC survey ship presence, China Coast Guard escorts, and further Philippine Coast Guard expulsion attempts near the Batanes.