YEMENI FORCES RETAKE BAB AL MANDEB GROUND AS HOUTHIS HIT SAUDI SITES
Yemeni government-aligned forces reportedly captured Perim Island and recaptured areas near the Bab al Mandeb Strait from Houthi forces on October 9. ISW assesses this reduces Houthi access to territory nearest the strait and shipping lanes, though Houthi forces retain other coastal positions for strikes.
AT A GLANCE
NEW | UKRAINE | ISW reports the US waived sanctions on Russian diesel exports, a move ISW assesses will fund Russia's war effort.
NEW | IRAN | Yemeni government forces reportedly recaptured Perim Island and Bab al Mandeb area territory from Houthi forces on October 9.
NEW | TAIWAN | US and Taiwanese authorities indicted 11 people for illegally reselling export-controlled chips to the PRC.
CARRIED FORWARD, SEP 30 | KOREA | No new ISW report since September 30; North Korean DMZ mine-laying and fortification risks remain unresolved.
WHY THE BAB AL MANDEB RECAPTURE MATTERS
ISW reports that Yemeni government-aligned forces, including the Southern Giants Brigade and Homeland Shield Forces, secured al Aradi and reportedly seized Perim Island on October 9, citing anti-Houthi sources and geolocated footage.
ISW assesses this follows the government's October 8 capture of Jabal Kahbub, high ground overlooking both areas, which may have enabled the subsequent advances near the strait.
ISW notes government control over this territory denies the Houthis key positions near the Bab al Mandeb but does not eliminate the Houthi threat to shipping, since Houthi forces retain other Red Sea coastal positions including near the Hanish Islands and Mokha.
Separately, ISW reports the Houthis continued ballistic missile strikes on Saudi critical infrastructure, including an October 8 attack on King Khalid International Airport that killed three civilians, as part of a campaign ISW assesses aims to pressure Saudi Arabia into concessions.
OTHER SIGNALS
UKRAINE | US DIESEL WAIVER AND YANDEX DATA CENTER STRIKE
ISW report of October 9 · new
ISW's October 9 update reports that President Trump announced a waiver on Russian diesel sanctions, allowing Russia to supply over 300,000 tons of diesel to US and global markets immediately, with more in November. ISW assesses this will fund Russia's war effort and represents a unilateral US concession, since Russia has offered no reciprocal concessions.
ISW also reports a second Ukrainian long-range strike on a Yandex data center, this time in Kaluga City, following an October 8 strike on a Sasovo facility in Ryazan Oblast. Separately, Montenegro detained and then deported Rybar founder Mikhail Zvinchuk, prompting Russian officials to threaten retaliatory detentions of Western nationals.
TAIWAN | CHIP SMUGGLING INDICTMENTS AND SHOAL INTERFERENCE
ISW report of October 9 · new
ISW's October 9 update reports US and Taiwanese authorities separately indicted 11 people for illegally reselling US-manufactured semiconductor chips to the PRC, which ISW assesses seeks the chips for PLA modernization and AI development. Taiwanese prosecutors charged 10 individuals for reselling chips from 2017 through April 2026 using forged documents.
ISW also reports a China Coast Guard vessel interfered with a Philippine medical evacuation at Second Thomas Shoal on October 8, which ISW assesses likely indicates the PRC no longer intends to honor its 2024 resupply agreement with the Philippines. Germany separately blocked a COSCO logistics acquisition on security grounds.