TRUMP WAIVES RUSSIA SANCTIONS; ISW SEES PROLONGED UKRAINE WAR
US President Trump signed an Executive Order on October 16 waiving sanctions against Russia under the Graham Act, according to ISW, and Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev called the move historic. ISW assessed that the waiver does not support Trump's stated goal of ending the war and will instead let Russia keep financing the conflict.
AT A GLANCE
NEW | UKRAINE | Ukraine's General Staff disputed Gerasimov's claim of 1,800 sq km seized since September; ISW assessed a 122 sq km Russian net loss.
NEW | IRAN | Yemeni government-aligned forces reportedly repelled Houthi attempts to seize Jabal Han and positions near Taiz City, per ISW.
CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 9 | TAIWAN | No new ISW report since October 9 on PRC interference with Philippine resupply and evacuation missions at Second Thomas Shoal.
CARRIED FORWARD, SEP 30 | KOREA | No new ISW report since September 30 on South Korea's corresponding measures following the DMZ mine incident.
WHY TRUMP'S SANCTIONS WAIVER MATTERS FOR UKRAINE'S WAR
Trump signed an Executive Order on October 16 waiving sanctions, restrictions, and tariff provisions against Russia under the Graham Act, per ISW. Dmitriev, a key Kremlin negotiator, called the suspension a significant and truly historic moment for Russia.
Russian and Ukrainian accounts conflict sharply over the frontline. Gerasimov claimed Russia seized over 1,800 square kilometers and 92 settlements since September 1, while Ukraine's General Staff spokesperson called this false and said Ukraine liberated more territory than Russia seized.
ISW assessed that evidence supports Kovalev's account, finding a Russian net loss of 122 square kilometers since September 1. ISW separately judged that Trump's sanctions waiver does not support his stated goal of ending the war and will instead help Russia continue financing it.
The combination of a sanctions waiver and contested frontline narratives suggests Moscow faces fewer financial constraints while contesting Ukraine's territorial accounting. Poland's warning of likely Russian sabotage against logistics infrastructure this winter adds a related pressure point on Western aid flows.
OTHER SIGNALS
IRAN | YEMENI FORCES REPEL HOUTHI PUSH NEAR TAIZ CITY
ISW report of October 17 · new
Yemeni government-aligned forces appear to have repelled Houthi efforts to secure positions on advantageous terrain and roadways on the western outskirts of Taiz City, according to Yemeni media and an independent Yemen-based journalist. Houthi forces have attempted to capture Jabal Han since completing their encirclement of Taiz City on October 12, but Yemeni forces have continued to repel these attacks since October 16.
The Houthis separately struck Aden International Airport on October 16 with two ballistic missiles, targeting weapons depots at Camp Badr, per Yemen's Transportation Ministry and Houthi media. ISW assessed that Iran likely continues to face constraints detecting and targeting vessels near the Strait of Hormuz despite a recent uptick in attacks, citing degraded Iranian coastal radar capability.
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