RUSSIAN SATELLITES REPORTEDLY AID HOUTHI STRIKES ON SAUDI ARABIA
A Switzerland-based geospatial intelligence firm told the Associated Press on October 28 that Russian military satellites have repeatedly positioned over Saudi energy and military sites before and after Houthi strikes. A Saudi official and a senior Houthi official separately told the AP that Russia is providing satellite targeting intelligence, reportedly via Iranian advisers in Yemen.
AT A GLANCE
NEW | UKRAINE | Russian and Ukrainian rights commissioners confirmed no violations in the first 30 hours of the Oleshky ceasefire as unidentified USVs struck a cargo ship off Bulgaria.
NEW | IRAN | A geospatial firm and officials told the AP Russian satellites tracked Saudi sites around Houthi strikes, which continued against Aden airport on October 28.
NEW | TAIWAN | The PLAN carrier Liaoning transited the Basilan Strait near Philippine waters while the PRC pushed a space arms control narrative at the UN.
NEW | KOREA | North Korea deepened ties with China via Kim Jong Un's Dandong visit while deploying artillery near the Han River Estuary close to Seoul.
WHY RUSSIAN SATELLITE SUPPORT TO THE HOUTHIS MATTERS
The geospatial intelligence firm reported 40 instances of Russian satellites positioning over Saudi military and energy sites between July 1 and October 19, including before the September 10 strike on the Saudi East-West Pipeline. ISW notes this pattern also appeared around strikes launched from Iraq.
A Saudi official and a senior Houthi official separately told the AP that Russia supplies satellite-based targeting intelligence to the Houthis, reportedly channeled through Iranian military advisers operating in Yemen. ISW assesses this imagery very likely enables battle damage assessments of Houthi strikes.
ISW assesses that Russian support is enabling the Iranian-backed Houthi campaign to constrain Saudi oil exports during a global energy crisis that Iran has caused by attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. ISW frames this as consistent with Russia's prior 2023-2024 targeting support to the Houthis.
Separately, the Houthis struck Aden International Airport on October 28 with at least two ballistic missiles after warning evacuation on social media. ISW assesses this is likely an effort to degrade the Yemeni government's ability to sustain military operations and deter partner weapons shipments.
OTHER SIGNALS
UKRAINE | OLESHKY CEASEFIRE HOLDS AS BLACK SEA STRIKE REPORTED
ISW report of October 28 · new
Ukraine's Human Rights Commissioner and his Russian counterpart confirmed on October 28 no ceasefire violations in the first 30 hours since the Oleshky agreement took effect October 27. Accounts differ on scope: Melania Trump said it covers unspecified other Kherson areas, BBC sources said it covers all of Kherson Oblast, and Fox News reported evacuees will travel via Anapa and Gomel, Belarus, with no confirmed onward route to Ukraine.
Separately, Bulgaria's defense minister said three unidentified, possibly Russian, unmanned surface vehicles struck the cargo ship Constship Jet about 21 nautical miles southeast of Shalba on October 28. ISW notes this follows recent Russian strikes on vessels near Romanian and Bulgarian waters in October. ISW also reports Russia is providing satellite targeting intelligence to Houthi forces.
TAIWAN | LIAONING TRANSITS BASILAN STRAIT NEAR PHILIPPINES
ISW report of October 27 · new
The PLAN carrier Liaoning and its escorts, including two Type 055 cruisers, transited the Basilan Strait and came within 50 nautical miles of the Philippine coast, the Philippine military confirmed October 26. ISW assesses this unusual transit likely aims to intimidate Manila and may simulate isolating the Philippines or Taiwan during a future conflict.
Separately, PRC officials pushed a space arms control narrative at the UN on October 21 and 23 while developing counterspace and dual-use satellite capabilities, according to ISW. ISW assesses the PRC portrays itself as a responsible space power while preparing offensive options against systems like Starlink in a Taiwan contingency.
KOREA | KIM VISITS CHINA AS NORTH DEPLOYS ARTILLERY NEAR SEOUL
ISW report of October 28 · new
Kim Jong Un made a single-day visit to Dandong, China, on October 24, meeting Wang Huning and touring a Korean War memorial, part of what ISW describes as North Korea restoring ties with Beijing. ISW assesses the newly opened New Yalu River Bridge will likely serve as a hub for North Korean sanctions evasion.
Separately, South Korean media reported the Korean People's Army deployed two 122mm self-propelled howitzers near the Han River Estuary, about 40 km from Seoul. ISW assesses North Korea is exploiting the September 21 landmine incident to accelerate frontline fortification while Seoul continues proposing bilateral military talks.
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