RUSSIA INTENSIFIES STRIKE CAMPAIGN, STRIKES KILL CIVILIANS IN
ISW reported on November 2 that Russia launched 6,473 long-range Shahed/Geran drones against Ukraine in October, with Ukrainian forces downing 75 percent. Russian forces also struck Komyshuvakha on November 2, reportedly killing at least 18 civilians in a double tap glide bomb strike, Zelensky said.
AT A GLANCE
NEW | UKRAINE | ISW reports Russia launched 6,473 long-range drones in October and struck a Komyshuvakha humanitarian site, reportedly killing 18 civilians.
NEW | IRAN | ISW reports Houthi forces advanced in Lahij Governorate, threatening Yemeni government reinforcement routes and Aden City.
CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 30 | TAIWAN | ISW-CDOT reported PLAN task forces conducting large-scale West Pacific transits simulating Taiwan isolation tactics.
CARRIED FORWARD, OCT 28 | KOREA | ISW reported North Korea deepening PRC ties while maintaining frontline military buildup along the Military Demarcation Line.
WHY RUSSIA'S STRIKE CAMPAIGN SIGNALS A SHIFTING THEORY OF VICTORY
ISW assesses that Russia's increasingly devastating long-range strikes reflect Putin's evolving theory of victory, which now hinges on making Ukrainian civilian life untenable rather than relying solely on grinding battlefield gains that have stalled.
ISW reports Russian forces made negative territorial gains over the last two months while suffering nearly 100,000 losses in October and September 2026 combined, pressuring Putin to lean more heavily on strikes.
ISW notes Russia increased quasi-cruise missile use and jet-powered drone strikes to maximize civilian harm, conserving ballistic and cruise missiles for high-priority targets while exploiting Ukraine's Patriot interceptor shortages.
The Komyshuvakha strike, which Zelensky said included a double tap on a sheltering civilian population, illustrates this strategy. Poland's new Border Defense Component responds to related sabotage warnings, per Ukrainian officials.
OTHER SIGNALS
IRAN | HOUTHI ADVANCES PRESSURE YEMENI GOVERNMENT ON MULTIPLE FRONTS
ISW report of November 2 · new
ISW reports Houthi forces captured positions in al Maqatirah District on November 2, including Jabal Irf, which overlooks the last government-controlled sections of the Taiz-Aden ground line of communication. The advance threatens government reinforcement and resupply routes toward Aden City.
ISW assesses the Yemeni government has already diverted Red Sea coast-based units to al Maqatirah, illustrating the dilemma the Houthi campaign is designed to impose. Separately, ISW reports senior Iranian officials met Russian and Chinese counterparts on November 2 amid reports of possible US attacks on Iran.
TAIWAN | PLA PURGES CONTINUE AS PLAN PRACTICES ISOLATION TACTICS
ISW report of October 30 · carried forward
ISW's carried-forward report states the CCP's Fifth Plenum confirmed the expulsion of 33 senior officials, including 16 military officers, reducing the near-term likelihood of major PLA operations according to ISW's assessment of Xi's distrust in military leadership.
The same report describes PLAN task forces transiting the Miyako and Osumi Straits between October 13 and 27, which ISW-CDOT assesses as practice for isolating Taiwan and preventing outside intervention during a potential conflict, coordinated with land-based aircraft support.
30-DAY CALLS: 6 of 7 resolved calls held since September 2026 (1 missed). Today's call is below.