IRAN LEADERS SAY US VOTE VALIDATES RESISTANCE STRATEGY
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said on November 4 that Iran's strikes on US bases and Strait of Hormuz actions exposed American weakness and proved the success of Iran's resistance strategy, according to the Iran Update. ISW-CTP assesses that Iranian leaders do not expect the US midterm results to change Washington's approach, meaning Iran will likely maintain its maximalist demands.
AT A GLANCE
NEW | UKRAINE | Russian drone strikes on November 3 to 4 caused widespread power outages across central and western Ukraine, per the November 4 assessment.
NEW | IRAN | Iranian leaders said US midterm results prove their resistance strategy worked, while ISW assesses US policy toward Iran is unlikely to shift.
NEW | TAIWAN | The PLAN may soon commission the Sichuan, the only amphibious assault ship with an electromagnetic drone catapult, per ISW-CDOT.
NEW | KOREA | North Korea's October 29 combined missile, rocket, and drone exercise suggests Pyongyang is integrating lessons from the Ukraine war, ISW-CDOT assesses.
WHY IRAN'S LEADERS SEE THE US MIDTERMS AS A WIN
Senior Iranian officials, including Khamenei, SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei, and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, publicly framed the November 3 US midterm results as a political defeat for Washington tied to the war's costs, according to the Iran Update.
ISW-CTP assesses that these statements suggest Iran will not moderate its demands, because Iranian leaders believe changes in US political leadership will not alter Washington's underlying approach toward Iran regardless of election outcomes.
Separately, the source reports Iran is using unmanned underwater vehicles, limpet mines, and rocket-propelled grenades, described as suboptimal compared to earlier anti-ship missiles and drones, to disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping.
ISW-CTP assesses US military overmatch is currently preventing Iran from significantly reducing civilian tanker transit, while noting Iran may invest further in unmanned systems over the long term.
OTHER SIGNALS
UKRAINE | RUSSIAN STRIKES CAUSE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES
ISW report of November 4 · new
Russian forces launched 310 drones overnight on November 3 to 4, striking energy infrastructure in Kyiv City and Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Volyn, Ternopil, and Zhytomyr oblasts, according to Ukrainian officials cited in the November 4 assessment. Zelensky reported emergency outages across eight oblasts plus Kyiv City, and Ukraine's energy ministry reported over 20 strikes on energy systems in 24 hours.
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed Russian forces shifted to more systematic strikes on system-critical substations to strategically weaken Ukraine, a claim ISW did not independently verify. Ukrainian forces continued long-range strikes into Russia, including a reported drone strike that caused a fire at an Ozon warehouse in Adygeysk, confirmed by the Republic of Adygea's head.
TAIWAN | PLAN PREPARES TO COMMISSION DRONE-CATAPULT SHIP
ISW report of November 3 · new
PRC state media reported the Type 076 vessel Sichuan conducted its first catapult launch and recovery of a GJ-21 stealth drone on October 30, according to the November 3 China and Taiwan Update. ISW-CDOT assesses Sichuan could be commissioned soon, potentially faster than the carrier Fujian given its single catapult.
Separately, Taiwan's Ministry of Defense is requiring teardown inspections of all military drone procurements after prosecutors found PRC-made chips in Align Corp drones used in two government contracts. Taiwan's National Security Bureau is also investigating suspected PRC cyberattacks against a DPP mayoral candidate's campaign infrastructure.
KOREA | NORTH KOREA TESTS COMBINED MISSILE-DRONE STRIKES
ISW report of November 4 · new
North Korea conducted a large-scale missile and drone exercise on October 29 alongside a drone exhibition showcasing fixed-wing UAVs, loitering munitions, and quadcopters, according to the November 4 Korean Peninsula Update. State media showed a fixed-wing drone firing what may have been an anti-radiation missile at a mock radar, followed by smaller drones and rocket and cruise missile launches.
ISW-CDOT assesses this layered strike sequence could be designed to degrade South Korean air defenses before follow-on strikes, reflecting lessons from Russia's campaign in Ukraine. Separately, US and South Korean defense ministers agreed to pursue a timely OPCON transfer, though the annual Security Consultative Meeting was postponed to early 2027 amid capability gaps.
30-DAY CALLS: 7 of 8 resolved calls held since September 2026 (1 missed). Today's call is below.