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Wahidullah Noorzai | NIDA's avatar

What stands out to me in this analysis is the importance of separating the incident from the conclusion.

From my own field experience, when something goes wrong, the first task is not to decide immediately whether it was an accident, a security failure, or an intelligence operation.

First, we establish what actually happened. Then we examine the gaps: who handled it, where the control was lost, what changed, and what was known at each stage.

Only after that can we assess intent and consequence.

This case is a good example of why chain of custody is not just a logistical issue. It is part of operational security.

A missing component may have limited technical value, or it may have greater value than initially understood. Until the evidence is examined, both possibilities should remain open.

In the field, the first assessment is never the final assessment. New information can change the picture, and a good assessment must be able to change with it.

Henry Rones's avatar

Gee, it’s not as if the President’s good buddy,.Xi, would have let his people peek inside the crates !

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