Source Files · Files collected October 19 to 25, 2026
This edition tracks where current wars are heading and the tools shaping them: Ukraine's bid to keep the strategic initiative, the undersea and drone domains where governance lags technology, and the unresolved question of what the Iran strikes actually achieved. We close with a historical lens on Russia's strategic culture, which helps explain why these dynamics keep recurring. Together these six pieces move from today's headlines to the deeper patterns driving them.
1. Eyes on the Target: Seizing the Strategic Initiative Against Russia
Institute for the Study of War · 5 pages · Oct 13, 2026 · Ukraine strategic initiative
An ISW analysis of Ukraine's opportunity to seize the strategic initiative against Russia in 2026. It frames the debate over whether sustained Western support can lock in Ukraine's battlefield gains. Headline finding: Ukraine has regained operational initiative and made significant battlefield gains in 2026, slowing Russian advances and challenging Moscow's war aims. (p. 2)
Library page · Original source
2. Winning the Undersea Knife Fight: A Deterrence Framework to Shape Subsea Dilemmas into Competitive Maritime Security Strategies
RAND Corporation · 20 pages · Undersea infrastructure
A RAND report proposing a deterrence framework for protecting undersea cables and pipelines. Sabotage risk to critical undersea infrastructure is a rising, poorly governed threat to national security and economies. Headline finding: Critical undersea infrastructure, including communication cables and energy pipelines, is highly vulnerable to attack due to its underdefended nature and limited repair capabilities. (p. 2)
Library page · Original source
The two files above are free. The next four are where this week gets interesting.
3. Countering Drone Proliferation from Russia's War Against Ukraine: Implications for Arms Control and Security Governance (SIPRI). What three-part fix does SIPRI say Europe needs before the next drone incident becomes a crisis?
4. U.S. Military Operations Against Iran's Missile and Nuclear Programs (CRS). Did the strikes actually touch Iran's nuclear material sites, according to inspectors?
5. Drone warfare and unmanned systems: A comprehensive review of military applications (Drone Review). What cheap technical fix is now making some of the most advanced electronic warfare defenses useless?
6. Russia and the West: Geopolitics and Strategic Culture (Russia Strategy). What centuries-old pattern does this analysis say is repeating itself along Ukraine's borders?