Source Files 010: Budgets, Bombs, and the Limits of Deterrence
CRS budget fights, RAND on Russian nuclear bluffs, and fresh data on civilian harm and AI targeting rules
Source Files · Files collected November 7 to 13, 2026
This edition pairs budget and institutional mechanics with hard battlefield and humanitarian data. CRS gives the numbers behind military construction and special operations reform, RAND and ISW test claims about Russian intent and nuclear coercion, the Explosive Weapons Monitor quantifies civilian harm, and SIPRI maps the governance choices ahead for AI in targeting.
All six files in this edition are for members. Here is what's inside:
1. FY2027 Proposed Military Construction Appropriations: A Summary (CRS). How far apart are the White House and the House on funding barracks and family housing for next year?
2. Defense Primer: U.S. Special Operations Forces (CRS). What new command just stood up to bring Space Force into the special operations fold?
3. The Effectiveness of Russian Nuclear Signaling in the Ukraine War: Lessons and Implications (RAND). Did years of Russian nuclear saber-rattling actually change what the West did for Ukraine?
4. Oleshky Ceasefire Demonstrates That Russia Has the Capability, but Not the Will, to End Civilian Suffering in Uk (ISW). If Russia can pull off a successful humanitarian pause, why does it so rarely happen?
5. Bulletin: Quarter 1, 2026 - Explosive Weapons Monitor (EWM). What caused civilian deaths from explosive weapons to jump so sharply in a single quarter?
6. Autonomous Weapon Systems and AI-enabled Decision Support Systems in Military Targeting: A Comparison and Recommended Policy Responses (SIPRI). Should AI decision-support tools for targeting be regulated like autonomous weapons, or does that framework not fit?